Bitcoin Cycle cracks but $250K still possible

Bitcoin Cycle concerns are growing among traders as Bitcoin moves through a challenging phase marked by shifting sentiment, weakening trend strength, and signals of miner capitulation. Although the market appears unstable, analysts such as Peter Brandt believe a powerful recovery toward 200000 to 250000 dollars is still achievable if Bitcoin retests deeper support zones before beginning a new rally. This evolving environment has placed significant focus on how the current cycle compares to previous ones and whether the long observed patterns still apply.

The latest one-month price chart from CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin moving through a period of noticeable volatility, with sharp swings reflecting shifting market sentiment. While BTC briefly attempted recoveries during the month, each bounce faced resistance, reinforcing the broader corrective structure discussed earlier. This pattern highlights how uncertainty continues to influence the market, yet the price action also shows pockets of strong buyer interest appearing after each dip. As a result, the chart underscores a market in transition rather than in full decline, aligning with the idea that deeper tests of support may eventually set the stage for a stronger rebound.

Understanding the broken Bitcoin Cycle structure

For more than a decade, the Bitcoin Cycle has been anchored to a four year pattern shaped around halving events. Historically, Bitcoin surged to new highs after each halving before entering extended corrections that typically retraced more than 75 percent of the gains. These repeating sequences created a sense of predictability, allowing traders to anticipate major turning points.

Recently, however, Bitcoin’s price slipped below the long recognized four year curve, indicating that the established pattern may be weakening. At the time referenced, Bitcoin held about 58 percent market dominance, while its price traded close to 86000 dollars, pushing its market capitalization below 2 trillion dollars. This shift raised questions about whether the traditional cycle had finally cracked.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt, author of Market Wizard, argued that market participants must accept the idea of cyclical decay. According to Brandt, Bitcoin’s price behavior has been adjusting proportionally to its growing size. As the asset matures, its expansions become smaller, leading to reduced cycle multiples. This compression suggests that future rallies may still occur, but they might not resemble the explosive surges of earlier years.

Why Bitcoin Cycle multiples are shrinking

Brandt revisited past Bitcoin movements and highlighted that each major surge in the asset’s history was eventually followed by a steep retracement. Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced five significant price events in which it set new highs and then corrected sharply. These observations reinforce the argument that deep retracements remain a natural part of the Bitcoin Cycle.

However, the recent break below the four year parabola carries additional weight. Brandt noted that if Bitcoin declines toward 50000 dollars, the reaction from that level could be exceptionally strong. He stated that reaching such a point might pave the way for a rally that could push Bitcoin to as high as 200000 to 250000 dollars during the next bull market.

Brandt emphasized that whether traders accept this possibility or not, they will have to contend with it. The breakdown of the four year curve suggests extended bear market conditions, and deeper resets may be necessary before the market regains strong upward momentum.

Market signals shaping the Bitcoin Cycle outlook

Even with the parabola broken, not all indicators point to sustained bearish pressure. The Average Directional Index, or ADX, showed a decline, revealing that the strength of the downtrend was weakening. When the ADX loses momentum, it often signals that sellers are beginning to lose control, potentially setting up future stabilization.

Miner behavior added another important factor to the unfolding Bitcoin Cycle story. A miner’s wallet moved fifty Bitcoin worth more than 4.33 million dollars after remaining untouched for more than fifteen years. Movements of old coins are often viewed as capitulation signals, meaning miners may be realizing profits or covering operational costs during market stress. These events commonly accompany major cycle turning points.

Brandt had previously warned that losing the parabola would extend bear conditions. The movement of long held coins and emerging capitulation signals supported this concern, showing that the market was undergoing a more complex reset.

At the same time, social sentiment shifted noticeably. Data from Santiment revealed that discussions around Bitcoin increased sharply across social platforms. Conversations also rose around related names such as MicroStrategy, Tether, Dent, Chainlink, and Polkadot. Growing social chatter often appears during uncertain periods, showing heightened public interest as traders react to sudden price movements.

Short term price action within the Bitcoin Cycle

Technical charts indicated that Bitcoin was forming a support zone, although there was still a valid possibility of sliding toward 80000 dollars. If the demand zone above that level weakens, a path toward 50000 dollars becomes more realistic. Brandt highlighted that a breakdown below 75000 dollars would significantly increase the likelihood of reaching the deeper target.

While such a decline may seem alarming, Brandt viewed the potential discount as an opportunity. He suggested that if Bitcoin did revisit lower areas, it could create the ideal conditions for a powerful recovery. Historically, Bitcoin has often rebounded from deep retracements with strong rallies.

Why the Bitcoin Cycle may still support long term strength

Despite the challenges, several factors support the possibility that Bitcoin could still deliver a major rally after a deeper correction. Shrinking cycle multiples are not necessarily signs of weakness but indicators of a maturing asset that naturally experiences reduced volatility as it grows.

Miner capitulation, while often painful, tends to occur near significant cycle lows. When miners begin to redistribute old coins, it usually reflects stress that precedes eventual market stabilization.

Rising public discussions, even during downturns, indicate that interest remains strong. High engagement during uncertain periods often reflects growing curiosity rather than declining confidence.

Finally, Bitcoin has repeatedly proven resilient. Even after major corrections in past cycles, it rebounded to set new highs once sentiment and liquidity improved.

Final thoughts on the evolving Bitcoin Cycle

The current environment shows that the Bitcoin Cycle is undergoing meaningful shifts. With shrinking multiples, growing capitulation signals, and a broken four year curve, Bitcoin faces one of its most complex moments in recent memory. Yet analysts like Peter Brandt still see a clear path toward a significant rally if the market tests lower levels before recovering.

A revisit to 50000 dollars is not guaranteed, and Brandt himself noted that such a move might be unlikely given Bitcoin’s strength. However, if it occurs, it could create the foundation for a surge toward 200000 to 250000 dollars.

In the end, the Bitcoin Cycle may appear cracked, but it is not beyond repair. The coming months will reveal whether Bitcoin stabilizes above current support or undergoes a deeper correction before beginning its next major advance.

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