Bitcoin Wave 3 targets $200K as sell pressure fades

Bitcoin Wave 3 marks a crucial stage in the ongoing market cycle as analysts project an explosive move that could propel Bitcoin’s price toward the $200,000 mark. Market expert Gert Van Lagen believes that the digital asset’s corrective phase, labeled Wave II, is nearing completion, paving the way for a massive Wave III expansion. This bullish structure reinforces the long-term upward momentum that has defined Bitcoin’s price trajectory for more than a decade.

Over the past month, Bitcoin’s price performance has mirrored this consolidation phase. According to CoinMarketCap data, BTC has fluctuated within a relatively tight range, showing resilience above the $100,000 mark despite intermittent volatility. The accompanying one-month chart highlights a steady series of higher lows, suggesting that accumulation may be underway as traders anticipate the next major breakout. This stabilization phase supports analysts’ view that Bitcoin is preparing for its Wave 3 expansion, with market momentum gradually shifting back toward the upside.

Bitcoin Wave 3 and the Elliott Wave model

According to Van Lagen, Bitcoin has consistently respected its 40-week simple moving average (SMA), a technical indicator that often marks the transition between correction and expansion phases. Each time Bitcoin tests this level and rebounds, it tends to initiate a new wave of parabolic growth. In the analyst’s current Elliott Wave interpretation, the cryptocurrency has just completed its corrective phase and is on the verge of entering Wave III, historically the most aggressive and profit-rich phase of the cycle.

Van Lagen’s “step-like” Elliott Wave framework suggests that Bitcoin builds a solid foundation before each major rally. This pattern has appeared in past cycles, notably in 2019 and again in 2023, where extended consolidations preceded exponential upward movements. He predicts that a similar structure could now drive prices into the $200,000–$240,000 range in the coming months if Wave 3 fully materializes.

Confirmation from other analysts

Other traders have echoed this bullish outlook. Crypto analyst Jelle pointed out that Bitcoin continues to encounter resistance near the midpoint of its long-term ascending price channel. Once Bitcoin successfully breaks through this resistance, the next technical target would be the upper boundary of the channel, approximately $350,000. This implies a significant upside potential once momentum returns to the market.

Jelle’s analysis aligns closely with Van Lagen’s view that Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains firmly intact. Both suggest that the recent sideways price action is a necessary consolidation period before another leg higher.

Macroeconomic backdrop supports Bitcoin Wave 3

Beyond technical factors, the macroeconomic environment may also favor Bitcoin’s next major rally. Researcher Sminston With noted that the U.S. economy could be entering a period of “mean reversion” after years of below-trend performance. The U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which tracks business activity, has remained below 50 for nearly three years, marking the longest downturn since records began in 1948.

Historically, prolonged periods of low PMI readings have been followed by powerful recoveries as business cycles normalize. This rebound typically leads investors to rotate back into risk-on assets, such as equities and cryptocurrencies. With explained that once economic confidence returns, Bitcoin, being a speculative, high-growth asset, could experience renewed buying interest from both institutional and retail participants.

This view complements the idea that Bitcoin Wave 3 could coincide with a broader macroeconomic recovery, driving prices to unprecedented highs.

Short-term consolidation amid bullish structure

While the long-term picture remains optimistic, Bitcoin’s short-term market activity has shown mixed signals. On Tuesday, Bitcoin filled a CME futures gap created over the weekend and is now attempting to establish a higher leg above the $105,000 level. According to data provider Glassnode, overall futures open interest has declined since the October 10 liquidation event, indicating a temporary cooling in derivatives activity.

The average BTC futures order size has also shrunk, reflecting a reduction in whale participation and greater influence from smaller retail traders. Despite this slowdown, analysts interpret the decline in leveraged positions as a potential reset that could strengthen the market’s foundation ahead of Wave 3’s next expansion phase.

Liquidation patterns hint at reversal

Data from Hyblock Capital indicates that clusters of long liquidations near the $100,000 mark preceded localized recoveries earlier in November. These liquidation events often act as short-term washouts, clearing excess leverage from the market and paving the way for more sustainable upward trends.

In particular, two significant liquidation clusters observed on November 4 and again later that week coincided with minor price rebounds, suggesting the possibility of another bullish reversal. If Bitcoin continues to hold above the CME gap and establishes a pivot near $105,000, it could confirm a broader uptrend in line with the Wave 3 expansion narrative.

Reduced sell-side pressure strengthens the bullish case

Analysts have also noted a gradual decline in sell-side pressure across major exchanges. As futures markets cool and leveraged positions unwind, the imbalance between buyers and sellers begins to favor accumulation. On-chain data suggests that long-term holders are largely inactive, a common behavior during the early stages of major bullish reversals.

This environment mirrors previous pre-rally conditions, where reduced volatility and declining selling pressure preceded explosive upward movements. Combined with positive macro trends and technical setups, Bitcoin Wave 3 could represent the next major chapter in the cryptocurrency’s price history.

What to watch next

Investors are closely monitoring the $105,000 level as a potential breakout zone. Sustained momentum above this threshold could validate the start of Wave 3, with subsequent targets at $200,000 and beyond. Conversely, failure to hold current support could lead to extended consolidation before the next leg higher.

Still, most analysts maintain that the broader structure remains strongly bullish. Historical cycles show that Bitcoin’s third wave typically delivers the largest percentage gains, often fueled by renewed investor enthusiasm and improving economic conditions.

Conclusion: Bitcoin Wave 3 shaping the next rally

Bitcoin Wave 3 could mark the beginning of another transformative period for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. With the corrective phase nearing completion, technical indicators aligning, and macroeconomic conditions shifting toward a risk-on stance, the setup for another parabolic expansion is forming.

If the pattern continues to unfold as analysts expect, Bitcoin may soon challenge new all-time highs and potentially reach the $200,000–$240,000 zone, solidifying its place as the dominant force in digital finance once again.

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