Crypto market relief expected as US shutdown deal nears

Crypto market relief could finally be on the horizon as the United States Senate reportedly moves closer to ending the government shutdown, which has stretched into its 40th day. According to Politico, senators have agreed on a three-part budget plan expected to pass the 60-vote threshold required to reopen the federal government. The long stalemate, which has affected millions of Americans and disrupted key economic functions, has also taken a toll on investor sentiment across the digital asset space.

For the crypto sector, the extended shutdown has represented more than a political impasse—it has been a significant drag on market momentum. Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, has struggled to sustain gains amid broader uncertainty about the US economy. Analysts suggest that a finalized agreement to restore government operations could trigger renewed confidence in risk assets, particularly digital currencies, which have suffered amid rising geopolitical and financial tensions.

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To complement the ongoing crypto market relief, the latest data from CoinMarketCap shows that several of the top 10 cryptocurrencies have posted gains over the past 24 hours. The image below highlights this short-term rebound, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major assets showing signs of renewed momentum as investor sentiment improves. While daily price swings remain typical in the crypto space, the broader upward movement suggests growing confidence as markets anticipate the official end of the U.S. government shutdown.

Crypto market relief and the Senate’s budget breakthrough

The Senate’s breakthrough appears to have been achieved after weeks of intense negotiation led by Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune. His 15th attempt to secure bipartisan backing for a House-approved spending package has reportedly paid off, with both Republican and Democratic leaders signaling sufficient support to pass the measure.

The agreement, which will require a formal vote to be finalized, aims to fund federal operations and end the record-breaking shutdown that began more than a month ago. While details of the deal have not been fully disclosed, insiders familiar with the talks indicated that both parties made concessions to ensure essential services and employee payments can resume swiftly.

The shutdown has weighed on multiple sectors, from trade to financial markets, and cryptocurrencies have been no exception. Market observers note that liquidity has tightened, and speculative appetite has weakened in the absence of clear signals from Washington.

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Bitcoin’s volatile response to political uncertainty

The crypto market relief investors are hoping for stems from the turbulence that accompanied the shutdown. Bitcoin initially surged to a new high of $126,080 on October 6—six days after the government halted operations—but sentiment quickly soured as uncertainty deepened. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin has since tumbled by over 17%, currently trading around $104,370.

The sharp decline underscores the sensitivity of digital assets to macroeconomic developments. On October 10, Bitcoin plunged by double digits following President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, a move that rattled global markets and further diminished investor risk appetite.

Analysts have linked much of Bitcoin’s recent price movement to external factors rather than internal market dynamics. The combination of trade tensions, reduced liquidity, and delayed government data releases has created a climate where even strong technical indicators fail to sustain upward momentum.

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Historical precedent: Bitcoin’s surge after the 2019 shutdown

Investors seeking crypto market relief have good reason to look to history for reassurance. The last US government shutdown, which lasted from late December 2018 to January 2019 during Trump’s first term, ended with an impressive Bitcoin rally. Once the government reopened on January 25, 2019, Bitcoin climbed from approximately $3,550 to nearly $13,000 over the next five months—representing a staggering 266% increase.

While past performance does not guarantee future results, the precedent highlights how restored economic stability and renewed government functionality can serve as catalysts for digital asset recovery. Analysts believe that a similar trend could unfold this time if investor confidence rebounds once the shutdown concludes.

The potential for crypto market relief is amplified by the fact that the current shutdown coincides with global uncertainty over trade policy, inflation pressures, and interest rate trajectories. A resolution in Washington could therefore have an outsized impact on markets already strained by macroeconomic volatility.

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Prediction markets anticipate a quick resolution

Further optimism for crypto market relief comes from prediction markets, which suggest the end may be in sight. Data from Polymarket shows that bettors assign a 54% probability that the shutdown will conclude between Tuesday and Friday of this week. This sentiment reflects growing confidence that the political gridlock in Congress will finally break, paving the way for government workers to return and agencies to resume normal operations.

Traders in both traditional and digital asset markets are closely watching these developments. Should the Senate finalize the agreement as expected, analysts anticipate a short-term boost for risk assets, with cryptocurrencies among the primary beneficiaries. Historically, such macroeconomic resolutions tend to reduce market fear and restore speculative interest.

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Broader implications for Bitcoin and digital assets

The conclusion of the shutdown could have implications beyond immediate price relief. For months, regulatory processes involving crypto-focused legislation, exchange approvals, and enforcement actions have slowed due to staff shortages and halted agency operations. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), key regulators for digital assets, have been operating under limited capacity, delaying several pending crypto-related decisions.

With the government set to reopen, many in the industry hope for faster progress on issues like Bitcoin ETF approvals and clearer guidance on token classification. Renewed engagement from federal agencies could create a more predictable environment for institutional investors, thereby strengthening the case for long-term adoption.

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Crypto market relief could trigger renewed optimism

Despite the recent volatility, many analysts remain cautiously optimistic that the crypto market relief triggered by a government reopening could mark the beginning of a new recovery phase. While the macroeconomic landscape remains challenging, Bitcoin and major altcoins have historically responded positively to easing uncertainty and improved liquidity conditions.

In the near term, traders will watch for confirmation that the budget deal is finalized and assess whether renewed government operations translate into tangible improvements in sentiment and trading volume. The outcome could determine whether the market’s recent pullback represents a temporary correction or a broader trend reversal.

As Washington moves toward resolution, digital asset markets may finally find the relief they have been waiting for.

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