Bitcoin price analysis: BTC drops to $113K as S&P 500 rallies

Bitcoin price analysis shows renewed weakness as the leading cryptocurrency struggles around the $113,000 level while the S&P 500 reaches new record highs. Investors are closely watching the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next rate decision, which could influence both crypto and traditional markets in the days ahead.

The chart above from CoinMarketCap illustrates Bitcoin’s one-month price performance, showing a steady but volatile pattern between $107,000 and $116,000. Despite short-term fluctuations, BTC has generally maintained support near the $111,000 zone while facing repeated resistance close to $116,000. This period highlights traders’ cautious sentiment ahead of key macroeconomic events, including the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, and reflects how broader market uncertainty continues to shape Bitcoin’s short-term trend.

Bitcoin price analysis: BTC under pressure amid Wall Street surge

At Wednesday’s Wall Street open, Bitcoin traded near $111,567, facing continued selling pressure even as U.S. stocks climbed to fresh highs. The data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed that BTC/USD hovered below $113,000 following a sharp sell-off during Tuesday’s session.

Bitcoin had previously attempted to recover to $116,000, but that level was firmly rejected. Analysts now view $114,500 as the immediate upside target and $111,000 as critical support. Failure to hold above this lower level could signal a continuation of short-term weakness.

Analysts describe a “volatile retest” phase

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital described the current movement as part of a “volatile retest.” On X, he pointed to Bitcoin’s 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $111,000, emphasizing that this zone represents an essential technical threshold.

“Bitcoin just needs to weekly close above $114.5K to confirm a successful retest,” Rekt Capital noted, sharing a chart that highlights how the current candle structure remains within historical consolidation patterns.

Similarly, trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed to the 200-period EMA on four-hour charts, which sits near $113,100. He said Bitcoin remains in a defined range, stating, “$116K rejected twice now, and price has moved back down closer to its large volume node around $111K.”

He added that the broader trading range lies between $116,000 on the upper side and $107,000 on the lower side. This suggests that Bitcoin is consolidating, awaiting a decisive breakout or breakdown before a larger move unfolds.

Technical factors shaping Bitcoin’s outlook

The ongoing Bitcoin price analysis highlights a technical tug-of-war. The 21-week EMA has historically acted as a trend indicator for long-term investors, while the shorter-term 200-period EMA reflects shorter bursts of market sentiment.

If Bitcoin closes above $114,500, analysts say it could confirm that the retest phase is holding. However, if the weekly close slips below $111,000, momentum could turn bearish, with possible moves toward $107,000 or even lower support zones.

S&P 500 climbs to record highs ahead of Fed decision

As Bitcoin consolidates, the S&P 500 made headlines by reaching a new all-time high of 6,914 points. The surge in traditional equities reflects renewed optimism among investors anticipating a dovish policy stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The contrast between Bitcoin’s cautious price action and the S&P 500’s strength highlights how capital flows have temporarily favored traditional risk assets. Historically, both markets tend to rally on expectations of lower interest rates, but crypto traders remain more guarded this time.

Fed rate cut expected but impact uncertain

Market participants broadly expect a 0.25% rate cut from the Federal Reserve, consistent with its previous guidance. However, many analysts believe the announcement will have limited short-term effects on Bitcoin.

According to QCP Capital’s “Asia Color” market update, “Tonight’s FOMC is widely expected to be a non-event. The Fed is set to deliver a 25bp cut, consistent with its September dot plot, and Powell is unlikely to offer new forward guidance.”

The report also mentioned that the recent U.S. government shutdown disrupted the flow of economic data, leaving the Fed without current inflation or labor figures. As a result, QCP noted that “the Fed is effectively flying blind,” reducing the likelihood of any major policy shift beyond the anticipated cut.

Bitcoin and equities show diverging behavior

The Bitcoin price analysis points to diverging behavior between digital and traditional assets. While stocks soar on optimism, Bitcoin remains trapped in a consolidation range, unable to establish a clear direction.

Analysts suggest that crypto markets are currently waiting for clearer signals from macroeconomic developments. The repeated rejection at $116,000 indicates trader hesitation, while rising equities imply that broader risk appetite remains healthy.

Long-term investors maintain that if the Fed maintains a looser monetary stance, Bitcoin could eventually benefit as liquidity increases. Historically, rate cuts have often preceded stronger Bitcoin rallies once market confidence returns.

Key levels and what to watch next

Traders following the Bitcoin price analysis are focusing on three main levels: $111,000 as support, $114,500 as short-term resistance, and $116,000 as the key breakout point.

If Bitcoin closes the week above $114,500, it would suggest that the volatile retest has concluded successfully, paving the way for renewed upward movement. However, losing $111,000 could trigger more downside volatility and challenge the broader bullish structure.

Market reactions to the Fed announcement will also be critical. A soft tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could encourage another rally in both equities and crypto, while any hint of caution may keep Bitcoin range-bound for longer.

Market sentiment and investor psychology

This Bitcoin price analysis shows that overall sentiment remains cautious but not bearish. Traders are closely monitoring correlations between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. A continuation of the stock rally could improve risk appetite and potentially lift crypto prices in tandem.

Still, analysts warn that technical confirmation is necessary before declaring a recovery. Many are waiting for a decisive break above the $116,000 ceiling to confirm a trend reversal and renew momentum toward higher levels.

Conclusion: Bitcoin waits for clarity from Fed and price action

In summary, Bitcoin price analysis suggests that BTC’s current position near $113,000 reflects an ongoing battle between macroeconomic uncertainty and technical resistance. The cryptocurrency is performing a volatile retest around its 21-week EMA, with traders focused on whether it can reclaim $114,500.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s record-breaking rally ahead of the Fed decision underscores the broader optimism in traditional markets. The Fed’s expected 0.25% rate cut may not immediately move Bitcoin, but its long-term implications for liquidity could shape market direction in the weeks ahead.

For now, Bitcoin remains range-bound between $111,000 and $116,000, with both bulls and bears waiting for the next macro catalyst. The coming days will reveal whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency can turn this consolidation into a renewed phase of growth or remain stuck in neutral territory.

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