Bitcoin Bullish Momentum Faces Resistance Near $78K

March 6, 2026 Marcus Tanaka 0 Comments

Bitcoin Bullish Momentum has strengthened after the cryptocurrency climbed to a four week high, opening the possibility of a recovery toward the $78,700 level recorded as the January monthly close. Bitcoin recently traded near $70,403, extending a strong rebound that began after the market bottomed near $60,000 on Feb. 6. The recovery represents roughly a 22% increase from that local low.

Despite the strong price movement, several indicators show that traders remain cautious about the sustainability of the rally. Data from derivatives markets and onchain analytics suggest that many investors are still hesitant to commit to a stronger bullish outlook. Much of this hesitation comes from the large number of Bitcoin holders who remain at a loss even after the recent recovery.

As a result, the market currently reflects a mix of improving price action and persistent skepticism among professional traders.

Bitcoin Bullish Momentum chart showing BTC price movement over the past 1 month with recovery toward the $70,000 level after the February correction.

Bitcoin’s price movement over the past month highlights the volatility that has shaped recent market sentiment. After dropping sharply during the early February correction, BTC managed to recover a significant portion of those losses, gradually climbing back toward the $70,000 range. The chart reflects a market attempting to stabilize after a sudden drawdown, with buyers stepping in during lower levels while resistance continues to form near previous consolidation zones. This pattern suggests that while momentum has improved in the short term, traders are still reacting to the aftereffects of the earlier decline rather than treating the move as a fully established trend.

Bitcoin Bullish Momentum Faces Caution in Derivatives Markets

Although Bitcoin bullish momentum appears strong based on recent price action, derivatives markets reveal that traders are still seeking protection against downside risks. One key indicator of this behavior is the 30 day options skew, which measures the relative demand for call options compared with put options.

Recent data shows that put options have been trading at about a 10% premium compared with equivalent call options. Put options allow traders to sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price and are commonly used as a form of insurance against price declines.

In neutral market conditions, the difference between put and call options typically ranges between negative 6% and positive 6%. The current premium therefore suggests that traders are paying extra for downside protection rather than positioning aggressively for further price gains.

This pattern is often interpreted as a sign that professional investors remain cautious about the strength of the current rally.

Futures Market Signals Limited Bullish Conviction

Another indicator reinforcing this cautious outlook is the Bitcoin futures basis rate. Futures contracts normally trade at a premium relative to spot markets because they settle at a later date. In balanced market conditions, the annualized premium generally ranges between 5% and 10%.

At present, the futures premium remains below the neutral 5% threshold. This suggests that traders are not aggressively using leverage to bet on rising prices.

When markets become strongly bullish, the futures premium typically expands as investors compete to open leveraged long positions. The current subdued premium therefore indicates that Bitcoin bullish momentum has not yet convinced professional traders to significantly increase their exposure.

Large Share of Bitcoin Holders Remain in Loss

Onchain data provides additional insight into why traders remain cautious. According to recent estimates, around 43% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently held at a loss when measured against the price at which those coins last moved.

This percentage increased significantly from roughly 30% in late January, when Bitcoin traded close to $90,000. The increase followed the sharp 32% market decline that occurred during the first week of February.

When a large portion of investors is sitting on unrealized losses, price recoveries often encounter resistance. As the market rises toward their original purchase prices, some holders may decide to sell their coins in order to exit positions without further losses.

This behavior can create persistent selling pressure during market rebounds and slow the pace of price recovery.

Mining Industry Pressures Add Uncertainty

Another factor affecting Bitcoin bullish momentum is the pressure currently facing the mining sector. Mining companies have recently experienced declining profitability due to rising energy costs and changing industry conditions.

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure has significantly increased demand for electricity and high performance computing resources. This surge in demand has intensified competition for energy, making mining operations more expensive.

At the same time, the value generated by Bitcoin mining has declined. The Hashprice index, which measures the expected daily value of one terahash per second of hashing power, recently dropped to around $30. Just three months earlier, the same metric was closer to $39.

As profitability falls, several publicly listed mining companies have begun adjusting their strategies. Some firms have sold portions of their Bitcoin reserves to maintain financial stability, while others are exploring opportunities in artificial intelligence and high performance computing.

These developments raise concerns that miners could become consistent sellers of Bitcoin rather than long term holders.

Corporate Cost Basis Creates a Psychological Barrier

Another major factor influencing Bitcoin bullish momentum is the average acquisition price of large corporate holders. One of the most prominent examples is Strategy, which has accumulated approximately 720,737 Bitcoin since launching its treasury strategy in August 2020.

The company’s average purchase price sits near $76,000. When Bitcoin fell below this level, it raised questions among investors about how the cost basis might affect market sentiment.

Other publicly traded companies with Bitcoin exposure, including Metaplanet and Twenty One Capital, have faced similar valuation challenges during the recent market downturn.

Although Strategy does not face immediate financial stress, market participants recognize that prices above the company’s cost basis could allow it to raise capital through stock issuance without heavily diluting shareholders.

Because of this dynamic, some traders believe there may be incentives to keep Bitcoin trading below the $76,000 level.

Editor’s View:

What stands out in the current market structure is not the absence of buying interest, but the hesitation behind it. Bitcoin’s recovery from the February drop has been steady, yet the derivatives data suggests that many participants are still treating the move as a relief rally rather than the start of a new trend. This type of behavior is common after sharp drawdowns, when traders prioritize capital preservation over aggressive positioning. In such environments, price can rise while conviction remains muted, reflecting a market that is rebuilding confidence rather than chasing momentum.

The $78,700 Level Remains the Key Target

For now, the $78,700 level remains an important milestone for Bitcoin bullish momentum. This level represents the January monthly close and serves as a major psychological and technical target for the market.

A sustained move toward that level would indicate that buyers are regaining control after the sharp February correction. However, the path toward that price may not be straightforward.

Derivatives market caution, potential miner selling, and the large number of investors still holding losses all create obstacles that could slow the recovery.

Until Bitcoin convincingly clears the $76,000 region and approaches the $78,700 target, traders are likely to remain cautious even as price momentum gradually improves.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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